Will a country implement Universal Basic Income as a permanent policy by 2030?
53
1kṀ5823
2031
36%
chance
3

Clarifications:

A country >> any country with over 20m citizens

Universal Basic Income >> income distributed to every citizen of the country

Permanent >> it's not planned as a temporary experiment

  • Update 2025-11-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Finland does not count for this market (despite being a country, it has less than 20m citizens)

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Deleted - I was mistaken

sold Ṁ79 YES

this was poorly constructed and should be a YES or NA imo

countries arent defined by population

title should probably have been 'will a country over 20M people implement UBI'

@strutheo adding a population count makes sense to avoid random experiments like the islands that you just posted. This is meant to track a real paradigm change. Adding small countries and city states doesn't contribute to the goal of this market. 20m people as a limit is definitely suboptimal, but a limit has to be set somewhere

@SimoneRomeo no, you don't just get to say "this is meant to" and then change the market radically.

@mods please NA this market.

@JamesBaker3 The current criteria were already in the description as of more than a year ago. See https://web.archive.org/web/20240624172246/https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-a-country-implement-universal. There was no change.

it was in the description, but i think its a pretty key piece of info that should have been in the title

its like asking 'will a horse win the race' and then in the description 'must be a black horse'

sold Ṁ56 YES

@strutheo on Poly in description they write in the description 'must be a horse that came last'

sold Ṁ47 YES

@Tulip oh! Oops, my apologies, I was wrong

Interesting. By these criteria Finland isn't a country.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Finland is definitely a country. It just doesn't count for this market.

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