This market resolves YES if by 31 Dec 2028 at least one of the following is true:
Federal legislation is formally introduced in Congress that proposes a nationwide, unconditional UBC-style programme (guaranteed in-kind access to ≥2 essentials such as food staples, basic utilities/housing, broadband, or public transport) as a primary alternative or successor to a cash UBI.
A declared U.S. presidential candidate (or sitting president) publishes an official platform explicitly advocating a UBC-style guarantee in place of or in clear preference to cash UBI.
A major U.S. think-tank or philanthropic foundation (e.g., Brookings, AEI, Roosevelt Inst., Gates Foundation) releases a flagship report calling for UBC over UBI and ≥5 national outlets (NYT, WaPo, WSJ, Reuters, AP, etc.) cover it within 60 days, describing it as a new direction beyond cash UBI.
NO = the pivot doesn’t materialize.
• None of the above occur by 31 Dec 2028.
• State-level pilots, niche academic papers, or op-eds alone are insufficient.
• If multiple criteria partly hit but lack nationwide relevance, I’ll consult Manifold mods for a ruling.
Context: UBI (cash transfers) has dominated basic-income talk in the U.S. since 2016. Recently, scholars have floated Universal Basic Services/Commodities—guaranteeing goods directly instead of cash. This market tracks whether that idea becomes the mainline policy conversation at the federal level by end-2028.
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