Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first time period during which the United States implements a nationwide Universal Basic Income (UBI) program. For the purposes of this market, a UBI program is defined as a government policy that provides all citizens with a regular, unconditional sum of money, regardless of employment status or income level. The implementation date will be determined by the official enactment date of the legislation or policy establishing the UBI program. If no such program is implemented by the end of 2040, the market will resolve to "Other."

Background

Universal Basic Income has been a topic of discussion in the United States for decades. Notable historical instances include:

• Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (1982–present): Since 1982, Alaska has distributed annual dividends to residents from the state's oil revenues. While not a full UBI, it provides a partial basic income to all residents. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (2019–2021): Stockton, California, conducted a pilot program providing $500 monthly to 125 residents, aiming to assess the impacts of guaranteed income. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Mayors for a Guaranteed Income (2020–present): A coalition of U.S. mayors advocating for guaranteed income programs, leading to various pilot programs across the country. (economicsecurityproject.org)

Despite these initiatives, as of June 2025, the United States has not implemented a nationwide UBI program.

Considerations

• Political Landscape: The feasibility of implementing a UBI program depends on political will, legislative support, and public opinion, which can shift over time.

• Economic Factors: Funding a nationwide UBI would require significant financial resources and could involve restructuring existing welfare programs or introducing new taxation methods.

• Technological Impact: Advancements in automation and artificial intelligence may influence the urgency and design of UBI programs as a response to potential job displacement.