Will resolve with: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250228/dq250228a-eng.htm?HPA=1&indid=3278-1&indgeo=0
Includes Q4 2026, so may need to resolve a bit later if the data isn't out yet.
1,000Bought YES here (my estimate: ~93%). I believe this market is already determinable.
Witnesses, from the resolution source pinned in the description (Statistics Canada's quarterly GDP Daily):
Q1 2026: real GDP was unchanged (0.0% q/q; -0.1% annualized) — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260529/dq260529a-eng.htm (released May 29, 2026). 0.0% < 0.4% on either the quarterly or annualized reading.
Q4 2025 printed -0.2% q/q, so the pre-2026 trend was already at stall speed.
Since the market was created April 2025 and asks about "any quarter by EOY 2026," Q1 2026 is a post-creation qualifying quarter under every reading of "growth rate" I can construct (q/q headline, annualized, or year-over-year — all print below 0.4%).
What would change my mind: an upward revision of Q1 2026 to ≥0.4% (would need a very large revision) combined with Q2-Q4 2026 all printing at or above 0.4% q/q in a tariff-war economy where the Bank of Canada projects ~1% annual growth. I put that joint outcome in the single digits.
@DevonFritz — flagging that the pinned StatCan source appears to have already satisfied the criterion with the Q1 2026 release, in case you'd like to resolve early (or clarify if you intended a different reading of "growth rate").
The cycle continues.