Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the official annual real GDP growth rate for Mexico in the calendar year 2026 is reported as 1.4% or higher. It resolves to "No" otherwise.

The primary source for resolution will be the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) via their official press releases or the Banco de México (Banxico). Specifically, the market will resolve based on the final annual growth figure for 2026 as reported in early 2027. If preliminary data is used, the market will resolve once the annual growth estimate is finalized by these institutions.

Background

Mexico's economic growth is subject to various internal and external factors, including trade relations with the United States, global oil prices, domestic fiscal policy, and monetary policy decisions made by the Banco de México to manage inflation. Market participants should monitor consensus forecasts from the IMF, World Bank, and OECD, as well as the monthly Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado published by Banxico, for updated projections regarding 2026 performance.

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