Background

As of 2023, Canada's GDP was approximately USD 2.1 trillion, while Australia's was around USD 1.7 trillion and New Zealand's was about USD 247 billion. This means Australia and New Zealand's combined GDP was approximately USD 1.95 trillion, still below Canada's GDP by about USD 150 billion.

Canada's economy has historically been larger than the combined economies of Australia and New Zealand. However, growth rates and economic trajectories can change over time.

Canada's economic growth is projected to be around 1.9% to 2.0% annually from 2027 to 2029, according to TD Economics. The Bank of Canada and other forecasters generally project modest but steady growth for the Canadian economy in the coming years.

Australia has experienced relatively strong economic growth in recent decades, particularly due to its resource exports to Asia. New Zealand's economy, while smaller, has also shown resilience.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Canada's nominal GDP (in USD) for the calendar year 2030 is lower than the combined nominal GDPs of Australia and New Zealand for the same year.

The market will resolve to NO if Canada's nominal GDP remains higher than or equal to the combined GDPs of Australia and New Zealand.

Resolution will be based on official GDP figures as reported by a reputable international organization such as the IMF, World Bank, or OECD, or by the national statistical agencies of these countries. If different sources report conflicting data, preference will be given to IMF World Economic Outlook data.

Considerations

Several factors could influence the relative economic positions of these countries by 2030:

• Resource prices, particularly oil and gas, which significantly impact Canada's economy

• Trade relationships, especially Canada's with the US and Australia's with China

• Population growth rates and immigration policies

• Climate policies and their economic impacts

• Potential economic shocks or recessions between now and 2030

• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, which can affect nominal GDP comparisons