If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's market resolve to "none of the above" or similar? | Manifold

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's market resolve to "none of the above" or similar?

9

304

Ṁ438

Ṁ210

2200

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves N/A if Isaac is unable to resolve his market by 2200, or if the market is resolved fraudulently or before the advent of AGI.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

Sort by:

predicts NO

Note that "none of the above" isn't an option on the market, and the description states that I'll just pick the closest one, so I'm confused why anyone would bet YES here.

Also you should probably include a link to the market.

predicts NO

What if his designated survivor resolves the market as described on his profile?

predicts NO

@MartinRandall that works.

Related questions

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

Related questions

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?

Will any of the (in)famous AI markets resolve in favour of AI hype?

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?