If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Question

This market resolves once either of the following are true:

AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get.

There appears to be no more significant danger from AI.

It resolves to the option that seems closest to the explanation of why we didn't all die. If multiple reasons seem like they all significantly contributed, I may resolve to a mix among them.

If you want to know what option a specific scenario would fall under, describe it to me and we'll figure out what it seems closest to. If you think this list of reasons isn't exhaustive, or is a bad way to partition the possibility space, feel free to suggest alternatives.

See also Eliezer's more fine-grained version of this question here.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs., followed by There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. and One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator. are most likely. See the market for live updates (228 traders, as of Feb 18, 2026).