61% chance. Our platform depends on some number of donors who either contribute insider knowledge or in-depth research to the marketplace by registering their donations. We call them project scouts. They can optionally join our public ranking at https://app.impactmarkets.io/ranking, which makes them easier to track. These project scouts seek to influence the recommendations that our platform generates for other donors like an aggregate of regrantor opinions. To join the ranking, they have to register donations to projects that subsequently receive a positive evaluation score. So the number of ranked project scouts can increase because new project scouts join and register their old donations, or because additional projects receive an evaluation. We're gearing up for such an evaluation round right now and hope to complete it next month. Their number can also drop if project scouts opt out of the public ranking. Background: We are currently in phase 1 of our rollout. Later we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. (See also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro.) Our long-term vision is to establish “generalized carbon credits” in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding. H/t to Nuño for nudging me to post this. [link preview]