Our platform depends on some number of donors who either contribute insider knowledge or in-depth research to the marketplace by registering their donations. We call them project scouts. They can optionally join our public ranking at https://app.impactmarkets.io/ranking, which makes them easier to track. These project scouts seek to influence the recommendations that our platform generates for other donors like an aggregate of regrantor opinions.

To join the ranking, they have to register donations to projects that subsequently receive a positive evaluation score. So the number of ranked project scouts can increase because new project scouts join and register their old donations, or because additional projects receive an evaluation. We're gearing up for such an evaluation round right now and hope to complete it next month. Their number can also drop if project scouts opt out of the public ranking.

(Edit: The evaluation round is now complete. You can read about it on Substack. I'm planning to resolve this question to YES on Jan 1, 2024, if the number of ranked regrantors is still greater or equal at that point. I didn't want it to be interpreted as YES if the number only briefly peaks above 15 and then drops below again because that could've easily have happened in a way that is hard to reconstruct (I'd have to dig into the database) or by accident (e.g., I introduce a bug and fix it soon after). These worries are now moot, but I'd rather stick to my original plan.)

Background: We are currently in phase 1 of our rollout. Later we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. (See also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro.) Our long-term vision is to establish “generalized carbon credits” in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding.

H/t to Nuño for nudging me to post this.

Will AI Safety Impact Markets (a crowdsourced charity evaluator) reach > 100 monthly active users in December 2023?

40% chance. Our strongest month so far was June 2022 with 61 monthly active users. Over the course of 2023, we've had 5–22 MAU. But the purpose of the platform is to provide donation recommendations, and a lot of people donate in December, so that I would expect December to be the strongest month. December 2022 (just 10 MAU) is not representative as we didn't have the charity recommendation features at the time, which we only launched in January 2023. We're only counting signed-in users in this statistic, not any kind of browser-fingerprinting heuristic. I haven't changed how the statistic is calculated in about half a year and don't expect to make changes this year. We currently (Sep. 18, 2023) have 243 users in total. Background: The platform is impactmarkets.io. 100 MAU is our approximate goal for phase 1 of our rollout. If we reach it, we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. Our long-term vision is to establish “generalized carbon credits” in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding. H/t to Nuño for nudging me to post this.