Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?
11
73
250
2026
15%
chance

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” To do so, it would need to go far beyond outlining a strategy and drafting some copy, as current systems like GPT-4 are so good at doing. It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns. It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight. You would still need a human to approve various points, open a bank account, actually sign on the dotted line. But the work would all be done by an AI.

Resolution Criteria

The question resolves as YES if there is a credible media article, research paper, company blog post, etc. by August 2026 describing a system that successfully made a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000 on a retail web platform, with minimal human intervention*, in a period of 12 months.

*I want the resolution of this question to adhere to the spirit of the fragment quoted from the article. AI can employ, contract, or utilize the voluntary work of humans but AI should be the final decision-maker - it can employ a designer but has to decide on its own if the design is good enough to make it into the final product (or it can hire someone/poll people to make that decision but, again, it has to approve this kind of decision process).
Creators/owners of the system are permitted to execute actions that are legally required to be performed by humans.

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