Will AI Safety Impact Markets (a crowdsourced charity evaluator) reach > 100 monthly active users in December 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

Our strongest month so far was June 2022 with 61 monthly active users. Over the course of 2023, we've had 5–22 MAU. But the purpose of the platform is to provide donation recommendations, and a lot of people donate in December, so that I would expect December to be the strongest month. December 2022 (just 10 MAU) is not representative as we didn't have the charity recommendation features at the time, which we only launched in January 2023.

Our users are (1) AI safety project developers or researchers who are fundraising on the platform, (2) donors who are looking for donation recommendations in AI safety (see also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro-72958b34a804), and (3) project scouts who want to build their donation track record to influence the recommendation on the platform to regrant for the previous category of donors (see also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro-880b377c1868).

We're only counting signed-in users in this statistic, not any kind of browser-fingerprinting heuristic. I haven't changed how the statistic is calculated in about half a year and don't expect to make changes this year. We currently (Sep. 18, 2023) have 243 users in total.

Background: The platform is impactmarkets.io. 100 MAU is our approximate goal for phase 1 of our rollout. If we reach it, we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. Our long-term vision is to establish “generalized carbon credits” in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding.

H/t to Nuño for nudging me to post this.

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It seems that public interest in donating money is not actually higher in December than in other months? https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=donate,charity&hl=en

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