Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Nicolás Maduro physically returns to Venezuela on or before December 31, 2027 (or another cutoff date as edited by the market creator).

The market resolves to NO if he does not return to Venezuela by this date, remains in custody in the United States or another foreign country, or dies before returning.

Key details and rules:

• Physical Presence: Any verified physical entry of Nicolás Maduro into Venezuelan territory will trigger a YES resolution. This includes returning as a free citizen, being deported, extradited, or entering under any other physical capacity.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. Department of Justice, the government of Venezuela, or major credible international news outlets (such as Reuters, The Associated Press, or The Guardian).

• Creator Discretion: The market creator may adjust the target cutoff date or clarify specific edge cases if required.

Background

On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas during a military operation. He was flown to New York and is currently detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn.

Maduro faces federal charges in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, including narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses. While his defense team has filed motions seeking to dismiss the indictment on the grounds of head-of-state sovereign immunity, a Manhattan federal judge has scheduled his criminal trial to begin on June 1, 2027. Meanwhile, former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez continues to govern Venezuela as the de facto acting leader.

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