Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Nicolás Maduro physically enters or returns to the sovereign territory (including land, airspace, or territorial waters) of Venezuela at any point before January 1, 2028, 00:00 UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined using credible reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) or official government statements. If Maduro remains in custody outside Venezuela, resides in exile outside Venezuela, or dies before physically entering Venezuelan territory, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

On January 3, 2026, U.S. military forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas during a military operation and transported him to New York. He remains in U.S. federal custody facing federal drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, with trial proceedings set for mid-2027.