Will the December Case Shiller be below last year's?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ443resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution via FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
S&P Case Shiller National Home Price Index, NOT seasonally adjusted.
The number posted for December 2024 is 323.375. If the value for December 2025 is below this, the market resolves to YES; otherwise NO.
I will not wait for any adjustments to come out - once FRED publishes the number, that's the number.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ121 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Before Jan 1, 2027, US home prices will at some point be 20% lower than today, as measured by Case Schiller index
8% chance
Will the PCE price index in December 2026 be more than 2% above that in December 2025?
60% chance
Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
50% chance
Will the S&P 500 dip below 6000 in 2026?
16% chance
Will the CPI-U show higher inflation over the course of 2026 than over 2025?
67% chance
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
69% chance
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?
58% chance
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2026?
19% chance