Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, commonly known as the Shiller P/E ratio, reaches a value higher than its previous all-time high at any point before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

The primary source for verification will be the data provided by the following website: https://shillerdata.com/.

Background

The Shiller P/E, or CAPE ratio, is a valuation measure usually applied to the S&P 500 index. It is defined as the price of the index divided by the average of ten years of earnings, adjusted for inflation.

The ratio is often used to assess whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical norms. As of early 2026, the all-time high for the Shiller P/E ratio was set during the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, when it reached 44.20 on December 1, 1999.

This description was generated by AI and edited my the market creator.