Resolves as yes if Scott Alexander and/or Astral Codex Ten features the following piece on social of some sort (substack, social media, etc.):
https://www.statsignificant.com/p/what-do-prediction-markets-say-for
Must happen within the next 30 days.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,058 | |
| 2 | Ṁ751 | |
| 3 | Ṁ647 | |
| 4 | Ṁ337 | |
| 5 | Ṁ261 |
People are also trading
@Conflux Forgive me if this is a stupid question, but how do you see the liquidity? Or are you just judging that it must be really high because you bought a large amount of NO without moving the probability much?
@Fion Market info, three dots in the top right, gives you the subsidies. Currently it says Ṁ5,571 / Ṁ5,590 - my understanding is that when you add liquidity, it only actually arrives at the market over time, to avoid people immediately taking advantage of the subsidy they just added. So this means "people have put 5590 in, but only 5571 has actually arrived so far".