Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

9

1kṀ1585

2028

54%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker

I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test. If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.

Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:
- The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).
- The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.

Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve YES if the AI performing the task is considered the 'main frontier approach to general purpose AI', even if it is not strictly classified as an LLM. This is contingent on the AI not using techniques similar to a traditional poker solver.

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

Related questions

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?

Will any LLM be able to multiply together arbitrary decimal numbers by the end of 2027?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy