Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
9
1kแน€1585
2028
54%
chance

https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker

I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test. If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.

  • Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:

    • The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).

    • The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.

  • Update 2025-05-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve YES if the AI performing the task is considered the 'main frontier approach to general purpose AI', even if it is not strictly classified as an LLM. This is contingent on the AI not using techniques similar to a traditional poker solver.

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