If an oral insulin pill is available by December 31, 2025, this will resolve to YES. If not, it will resolve to NO.
As a T1D reliant on a pump to provide insulin, I think this resolution is extremely unlikely in the next 5 years. I am still taking the same insulin I took when I was diagnosed 10+ years ago. Most advancements have come from new insulin delivery devices (pens, pumps, etc) and new blood sugar monitoring devices (CGMs). The only related advancements in insulin I am aware of were FIASP insulins, which, while faster acting, are taking forever for anyone to adopt. Oral insulin seems like a nightmare from a fast-acting perspective, and in the form of a pill means it would be so delayed in entering your bloodstream you would likely have to take it like an hour before a meal or have massive blood sugar spikes. Perhaps an inhaled spray form would be feasible and fast-acting, similar to how glucagon pens have evolved into nasal sprays for quickly raising low blood sugars, but a pill form of insulin seems unlikely. All that to say, even if one was just starting to be developed, it would probably take 3-5+ years for it to pass FDA approval. Tech moves so slowly for diabetics, and especially for insulin-dependent diabetics such as those with T1D.
@Supermaxman I mean, I think oral insulin can be available while still being very unable to entirely replace injections. Yeah, sure, it would make a lot of sense if someday I can replace only my long acting. But... yeah I don't expect a pill form of insulin in two years.
@April That’s fair, it’s been so long since I’ve used long-acting so I totally forgot. That use case makes sense for sure.
This seems likely to happen sometime, but are there any candidates that are close? Oramed had one in a Phase III trial earlier this year, but it failed to show efficacy. I couldn't find any others in clinical trials in the US in a quick search. I think it usually takes longer than two years from starting clinical trials to availability in the US. I suppose it's also possible for one to be approved in another country, or made available somewhere with more lax regulations.
@DanielGallant Good description but I'm actually referring to this:
The market is currently set to close for trading in just a couple days, which can be extended if you click on the close date.