Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2060, two or more of the following conditions are met regarding the United States:

1. Constitutional Suspension: The Constitution of the United States is officially suspended, bypassed, or abolished for a continuous period of more than 365 days.

2. Legislative/Judicial Dissolution: The United States Congress or the Supreme Court is officially suspended, dissolved, or prevented from exercising its constitutional duties for a continuous period of more than 365 days.

3. Term Limit Removal: The presidential term limit (enshrined in the 22nd Amendment) is officially repealed, suspended, or bypassed, allowing a sitting president to seek or serve more than two terms.

4. Unilateral Decree Power: The President of the United States is granted the permanent legal authority to unilaterally enact federal laws or statutes without requiring the approval of Congress.

5. International Democracy Index Downgrades: The United States is officially classified as "Not Free" by Freedom House AND as an "Authoritarian Regime" by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index in their respective annual report releases.

6. One-Party State/Closed Autocracy: The United States is classified as a "Closed Autocracy" by the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute OR is widely recognized as a one-party state where alternative political parties are legally barred from holding power.

If fewer than two of these criteria are met by January 1, 2060, the market will resolve to NO.

Edge Cases & Fallbacks:

• US Dissolution/Secession: If the United States splits into multiple successor states prior to 2060, this market will track the successor state that contains the majority of the original population (at least 51%) as of the time of division.

• Source Discontinuation: If any of the specified tracking organizations (Freedom House, EIU, V-Dem) cease publication, the market creator will use comparable international indices or consensus assessments from academic political science groups as fallbacks.

Background

The question of whether the United States could slide into autocracy is a subject of ongoing debate among political scientists, historians, and legal scholars. While the U.S. has a robust system of constitutional checks and balances, the early 21st century has seen concerns about democratic backsliding, the polarization of institutions, and the potential erosion of democratic norms.

The V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report has historically highlighted a global "third wave of autocratization," noting that a vast majority of the global population now lives in electoral or closed autocracies. This market tracks extreme legal and institutional milestones that would signal a transition from a backsliding democracy into a totalitarian dictatorship.