[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?
15
Ṁ5.2kṀ15kJan 7
1.49 °C
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.1%
Below 1.2°C
2%
1.20 - 1.30°C
5%
1.30 - 1.40°C
47%
1.40 - 1.50°C
41%
1.50 - 1.60°C
2%
1.60 - 1.70°C
0.8%
1.70 - 1.75°C
0.6%
Above 1.75°C
Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question resolves as the first Yearly Average Observed Temperature Anomaly in degrees Celsius reported by the Data Action Foundation's Climate Change Tracker for the full year 2026, timestamped after 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2026 be 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average ?
91% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
94% chance
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
83% chance
Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
1% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
65% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
1% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
94% chance
Will average global temperatures rise to 2.0 Celsius above pre-industrial baseline within 10 years?
18% chance
Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?
41% chance
How warm will European winter of 2026-2027 be?
0.91