Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the central estimate of the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature anomaly relative to the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline for the calendar year 2026.

• Primary Source: The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) official State of the Global Climate 2026 report, typically published in March or April 2027. The report series can be tracked via the WMO Climate Reports library.

• Resolution Rule:

  • YES: If the WMO's consolidated central estimate for the 2026 global mean temperature anomaly is 1.50°C or higher relative to the 1850–1900 baseline.

  • NO: If the consolidated central estimate is less than 1.50°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline.

• Fallback Source: If the official WMO report is not published by July 1, 2027, the market will resolve using the annual global temperature anomaly reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) in their Global Climate Highlights for 2026 (typically released in January 2027).

Background

The 1.5°C threshold is a critical target under the 2015 Paris Agreement, though the treaty refers to long-term warming over decades rather than individual years.

• Historical context: 2024 was the warmest year on record, reaching approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline and marking the first calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold. 2025 was slightly cooler at roughly 1.43°C to 1.44°C above the baseline, largely influenced by a cooling La Niña pattern.

• 2026 Outlook: The WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update projects that annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the pre-industrial average, with El Niño conditions predicted to develop toward the end of 2026.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.