Will the UK experience major riots in 2025, on a similar scale to those experienced in 2024?
29
1kṀ3098
resolved Jun 10
Resolved
YES

Background

The UK experienced significant riots in 2024, sparked by anti-immigration sentiments. These riots involved violent clashes between far-right groups, counter-protesters, and police forces.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if at least one of the following occurs in the UK during 2025:

  • Multiple days of violent protests involving 1000+ participants

  • Property damage exceeding £1 million in a single riot event

  • Deployment of riot police in multiple cities simultaneously

  • Declaration of a state of emergency due to civil unrest

  • Multiple injuries to police officers or civilians during riot events

The market will resolve NO if none of these criteria are met during 2025.

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Most people in the UK are probably unaware of Ballymena and nobody in GB, and probably not even people in NI, consider this to be equivalent to the 2024 reference.
Wrongly resolved IMHO

@NickHounsome Yeah I think I underspecified the resolution criteria given the title. Will spin up another one later today

@NickHounsome I think by the letter of the resolution criteria it works, but agree that it wouldn't have fit most people's assumptions. The criteria just weren't on the same scale as the riots last summer.

Resolving YES on the Ballymena riots.

bought Ṁ100 YES

https://inews.co.uk/news/everything-we-know-ballymena-riot-3740085

"Riots erupted and homes were set on fire in a Northern Ireland town after two teenage boys were charged with attempted rape.

Fifteen police officers were injured after disorder broke out in Ballymena on Monday night with the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) appealing for calm."

Tentative suggestion that criterion 5 "multiple injuries to police officers" has been fulfilled?

Crowd of 2500, over 2 days... Criterion 1 too?

Resolution questions:

What is a “riot event” in points 2 and 4; what is a “violent” protest in point 1; is a state of emergency only invocations of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, or are there lesser or localised declarations that would count in a similar way?

@paulnewmanseyes lmao glad I asked these questions and didn’t take a position in this market without an answer. Ridiculous resolution.

@paulnewmanseyes Yeah I ballsed it up, would appreciate feedback on what criteria you would pick

@DELETECLUB The easier side is scale: "big" needs to be multi-day and multi-city to match up to the last two "big riots" in the UK, in 2024 and 2011. Distinguishing "riot" from "disruptive or violent protest" is harder. Easiest version IMO would be to let media descriptions guide: if three or more outlets from a list of mainstream publication call them riots in a non-comment headline?

@paulnewmanseyes Created https://manifold.markets/DELETECLUB/will-the-uk-excluding-northern-irel?play=true, let me know if you have any feedback on resolution criteria.

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