Background
The UK experienced significant riots in 2024, sparked by anti-immigration sentiments. These riots involved violent clashes between far-right groups, counter-protesters, and police forces.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if at least one of the following occurs in the UK during 2025:
Multiple days of violent protests involving 1000+ participants
Property damage exceeding £1 million in a single riot event
Deployment of riot police in multiple cities simultaneously
Declaration of a state of emergency due to civil unrest
Multiple injuries to police officers or civilians during riot events
The market will resolve NO if none of these criteria are met during 2025.
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People are also trading
@NickHounsome Yeah I think I underspecified the resolution criteria given the title. Will spin up another one later today
@NickHounsome I think by the letter of the resolution criteria it works, but agree that it wouldn't have fit most people's assumptions. The criteria just weren't on the same scale as the riots last summer.
https://inews.co.uk/news/everything-we-know-ballymena-riot-3740085
"Riots erupted and homes were set on fire in a Northern Ireland town after two teenage boys were charged with attempted rape.
Fifteen police officers were injured after disorder broke out in Ballymena on Monday night with the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) appealing for calm."
Tentative suggestion that criterion 5 "multiple injuries to police officers" has been fulfilled?
@paulnewmanseyes lmao glad I asked these questions and didn’t take a position in this market without an answer. Ridiculous resolution.
@DELETECLUB The easier side is scale: "big" needs to be multi-day and multi-city to match up to the last two "big riots" in the UK, in 2024 and 2011. Distinguishing "riot" from "disruptive or violent protest" is harder. Easiest version IMO would be to let media descriptions guide: if three or more outlets from a list of mainstream publication call them riots in a non-comment headline?
@paulnewmanseyes Created https://manifold.markets/DELETECLUB/will-the-uk-excluding-northern-irel?play=true, let me know if you have any feedback on resolution criteria.