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Will the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price fall below $7,500 per tonne on May 1, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ270
May 1
7%
chance

Resolves YES if the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price is strictly below $7,500 per tonne on May 1, 2026, based on prices published by Fastmarkets or a comparable authoritative lithium market price index. This threshold is near the expected price level considering the recent supply disruption caused by Zimbabwe's export ban, which removes significant spodumene concentrate supply from the global market, supporting prices above recent troughs around $9,000/t in 2025 and the rally to ~$21,000/t in early 2026. The market evaluates the spot price on the settlement date only; intraday or average prices before or after do not count. This market captures the impact of supply chain disruptions on lithium prices amid ongoing demand growth for EV batteries and energy storage.

Zimbabwe's export ban removes significant supply from global lithium market.

Source: Article

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