This market resolves YES if China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceeds 3500 USD/t on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Battery-grade coated spherical graphite (≥99.95% C, D50 ~15–20μm) spot price in China's domestic market, in USD/t.
YES if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price ≥ 3500 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026 NO if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price < 3500 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal spherical graphite price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spherical graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets battery graphite assessment (fastmarkets.com)
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 1,728.10 USD/t
Rationale: The skeptic raises valid concerns about product differentiation, but the objection doesn't overcome the weight of available evidence. While coated battery-grade graphite commands a premium over uncoated, the $1,728/t baseline with typical industry premiums would not reach $3,500/t. The cited synthetic battery graphite prices ($3,419-$4,232/t) represent different products (likely artificial/synthetic vs natural spherical). The interpretation ladder allows reasonable inference from closely related
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