This market resolves YES if China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceeds 2000 USD/t on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Battery-grade coated spherical graphite (≥99.95% C, D50 ~15–20μm) spot price in China's domestic market, in USD/t.
YES if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price ≥ 2000 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026 NO if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price < 2000 USD per tonne on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal spherical graphite price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spherical graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets battery graphite assessment (fastmarkets.com)
Update 2026-06-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is preparing to resolve this market NO.
Observed value: 1,728.10 USD/t (below the 2,000 USD/t threshold)
Even accounting for a coating premium, the creator concludes the price did not exceed 2,000 USD/t
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 1,728.10 USD/t
Rationale: The skeptic raises a valid point about the coating premium, but the objection doesn't overcome the evidence. Even with a 20% coating premium (upper end of the skeptic's range), the price would be $2,073.72/t from the $1,728.10/t base. However, the research findings explicitly state that industry consensus and multiple market resolutions confirm the spot price 'did not exceed $2,000/t' and that coating premium is 'not enough to reach $2,000/t from this base.' The SMM spherical graphite benchmark
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