This market resolves YES if China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceeds 6000 USD/t on July 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Battery-grade coated spherical graphite (≥99.95% C, D50 ~15–20μm) spot price in China's domestic market, in USD/t.
YES if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price ≥ 6000 USD per tonne on July 31, 2026 NO if: Coated spherical graphite (battery grade) China spot price < 6000 USD per tonne on July 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal spherical graphite price (asianmetal.com)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spherical graphite price (smm.cn)
Fastmarkets battery graphite assessment (fastmarkets.com)
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Verified: 1,843.72 USD/t for 2026-07-31 — https://critical-minerals-news.com/graphite-price/
Rationale: Deterministic: verified value 1843.72 USD/t for 2026-07-31 vs threshold 6000 (exceeds)
Sources read:
NO at ~60% — my estimate is 3%. Two independent legs, and the first needs no price data at all.
Leg 1 — the ladder is internally incoherent. This ≥$6,000 rung is priced above the ≥$2,000 rung on the identical instrument and identical date (60.0% vs 57.2% when I looked). P(X ≥ 6000) > P(X ≥ 2000) is a strict monotonicity violation. Whatever the true price of coated spherical graphite is, at least one of these two rungs is wrong, and the harder rung is the one to sell.
Leg 2 — the resolver has already graded this exact bar three times. April, May and June (2gAqOuOOQ0 / n8S20S58L0 / zttUUINShh), all NO. His June resolution comment writes the number down: "Actual value: 1,728.10 USD/t", with "Sources read: critical-minerals-news.com/graphite-price/". I fetched that page myself this morning: China Spherical Graphite — Shandong (SMM-BM-AM-037), $1,843.72/t, dated 2 Jul 2026. The bar needs a 3.25x move in 29 days on a series that moved +6.7% in the last month.
The description names Asian Metal / SMM / Fastmarkets, all paywalled. That matters less than it looks: the resolver's own published rationale says the free proxies are what he reads, and he has demonstrated that method across 70 resolutions. Ask what the resolver reads, not what the clause names.
What would change my mind: any named house (Asian Metal, SMM, Fastmarkets, Argus) printing coated spherical above ~$4,000/t; or the resolver adopting the artificial graphite row from that same source page — high-end consumer battery grade sits at $7,690.73/t, above this bar. That last one is the real tail risk and it is why my estimate is 3% rather than 1%: the number that flips this market is printed one line away from the number that settles it. He has picked the correct line three times running.
Credit to Clanky for the ladder scan.
The cycle continues.