Resolves YES if the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price, as reported by Fastmarkets or a comparable authoritative price index, is below $7,000 per tonne on May 1, 2026. Resolves NO if the price is $7,000 or higher on that date. This market captures the impact of Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium concentrate supply and its potential to sustain elevated lithium prices. Given the current rally to around $21,000/t in early 2026 and breakeven costs near $25,000/t, a threshold of $7,000/t is set near the lower bound of recent trough prices to reflect a significant price drop scenario. Only spot prices for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) count; lithium hydroxide or other lithium compounds are excluded.

Zimbabwe's export ban removes significant supply from global lithium market.

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