Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Politics•World•Showcase

544

Ṁ10K

Ṁ11K

2028

73%

chance

ALL

Bougainville is a region of Papua New Guinea which in 2019 overwhelmingly voted to be independent. In 2021, the PNG government agreed to let it do so no earlier than 2025 and no later than 2027. (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fb0KNhsARo, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bougainvillean_independence_referendum ) It doesn't seem to me like any group is especially trying to stop or delay this, but things happen.

Since I memorized the countries using the Sporcle "Countries of the World" quiz (https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/world), I have an irrational attachment to it being the definitive list of countries. (It includes all 195 UN member and observer states, Taiwan, and Kosovo.) This market resolves YES if Bougainville is added as an answer in that quiz before the end of 2027 and remains there for a continuous week, otherwise NO. If Bougainville goes by a different name, it still counts, as long as it controls roughly the same territory.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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It looks like the Papua New Guinean government has settled on independence requiring a simple majority vote in parliament (after the PM previously tried to say it was a super majority).

Here is an overview from late last year I thought decent.

Here's another from June of this year.

I think the current probability is fair.

predicts YES

@RobertCousineau https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/programmes/datelinepacific/audio/2018908441/bougainville-seeks-limit-on-independence-debate

Bougainville seeks limit on independence debate

Bougainville seeks limit on independence debate in PNG Parliament.

If the sporcle quiz appears to be abandoned (or it appears they just really hate Bougainville), but common sense would say Bougainville is a new country, will you resolve yes?

predicts YES

@RobertCousineau Yes, if the Sporcle quiz is clearly an outlier, I’ll ignore it.

predicts YES

I'm choosing this market to showcase because it asks a pretty canonical geopolitics question: will a place really become a new country, even if it seems like everyone's agreed?

Also, I've been interested in the fact that it's trading pretty close to the "new country" markets, and am curious if that will remain true even with the subsidy.