Will any part of French Polynesia be a sovereign state before 2040?
Basic
3
Ṁ312040
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If it is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If it is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
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