Which of @ScottAlexander's "Quests and Requests" projects will occur by end of November 2024?
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Plus
13
Ṁ466
Dec 1
66%
8. A good primer on political change
65%
5. Automatic Implicit Association Test generator
61%
2. Open source polygenic score for educational attainment
55%
1. Replicate brain entrainment learning results
34%
6. A good dating site
30%
4. My crazy idea for language teaching
30%
3. Things like John Green's anti-tuberculosis campaign
24%
7. A foundation to promote classical art and architecture (eg Art Nouveau)

@ScottAlexander just posted a blog post (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/quests-and-requests) listing eight "Projects that need incubating." He states the following:

I’ll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can’t guarantee I’ll fund all these projects - some of them are more like vanity projects than truly effective. But I might fund some of them, and others might be doable without funding. So if you’re feeling left out and want a cause to devote your life to, here are some extras.

A lot of the ideas seem like they could be good, or at least interesting, but they'd also require devoted effort. So I wanted to make this market on whether any of them happen in the next year. (Strictly speaking, by end of November 2024.)

There will probably be some discretion involved in determining whether the projects have occurred. Should he make any kind of public statement on this matter, I will fully defer to Scott. Otherwise, I will do my best — though if it becomes contentious, I may just defer to a poll or other decision-making body.

But should the responsibility devolve on me: I'd likely resolve to probabilities (probably 25%, 50%, or 75%) if a project has partially happened. Also, some projects, like #3, are less concrete and more about "doing things in a certain vein." For those, I'd do a full YES resolution if the project has achieved at least one substantial victory, or a well-developed organization.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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I am kinda shocked that 5 does not exist in the world. I guess one interesting part about the IAT, is that tons of folks have taken the race one, which lets the results say something more broad. Seems like it’d be worthwhile to have a consistent set of images for requests that happen more than X times, with a drop down to select those, and also have an option for free response.

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