Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before September 1, 2026, the United States deploys active-duty military ground forces ("boots on the ground") on sovereign Iranian territory (including mainland Iran and its sovereign islands, such as Kharg Island).

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Definitions & Clarifications:

"Boots on the ground": Defined as the physical presence of U.S. military personnel (including Army, Marines, or Special Operations Forces) on dry land within Iran's borders for combat, securing infrastructure, or other military operations.

Exclusions: The following events will not trigger a YES resolution:

• Naval blockades, ship boardings, or maritime operations in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz that do not involve forces landing on Iranian territory.

• Aerial operations, including manned or unmanned airstrikes.

• U.S. aircrews or pilots entering Iranian territory solely due to their aircraft being shot down, or search-and-rescue teams deployed specifically to retrieve downed personnel.