Will REAL ID-compliant identification be required for domestic air travel in the US in 2025?
19
264
370
2026
48%
chance

The REAL ID Act sets standards that state/territory-issued identification cards must meet to enter federal facilities and board airline flights (with security handled by a federal agency, the Transportation Security Administration).

The initial regulations required compliant identification cards starting in 2014 (or 2017 for people born before December 1964), but the date for full enforcement has been extended to 2020, then 2023, and now 2025 (as of December 2022). REAL ID-compliant identification is already required to enter federal facilities but not to board airline flights.

Will this last part of the REAL ID Act take effect in 2025 or will it be extended again?

This market resolves to YES if, at any point in 2025 (between 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2025 and 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2026 [05:00 UTC = 00:00 EST]), the Transportation Security Administration (or any other federal agency that may in the future be tasked with airport security in a similar role as TSA) rejects all state/territory-issued identification that is not REAL ID compliant for passengers 18 and older wishing to board domestic airline flights. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Notes:

  • This market is asking only about state/territory-issued identification. Federally-issued identification is also considered REAL ID-compliant and will (presumably) be accepted as well.

  • Currently, TSA does not require identification for passengers under age 18. If this age limit is raised or REAL ID requirements apply only at a higher age, then this is not sufficient for a YES resolution.

  • As an exception, if the requirements take effect but they are blocked within a day (by some emergency order or court injunction, for example), then this is not sufficient for a YES resolution. I will use my own judgment based on credible news reports to determine whether this exception applies.

  • I may trade in this market as usual.

    Close date updated to 2025-12-31 9:00 pm

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bought Ṁ65 of NO

Current rollout is May 2025. I think it will be pushed back once more, but could easily stay in 2025.

predicts YES

@MatthiasPortzel why the NO trade then? Are you not confident that it will stay in 2025?

I always thought it was too funny that people under 18 don't have to present ID because how do you know they're under 18??

bought Ṁ25 of NO

This question made me laugh

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