Will somebody get arrested as a result of an attempt to manipulate a market on Manifold before 2025?
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Dec 31
4%
chance

yes, this market counts, needs an official arrest by real law enforcement

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predicts NO

Manifold admins contacted the CIA to investigate the Russian/Ukrainian bot farming operation.

If paratroopers drop into Russia and abduct someone to Guantanamo Bay as punishment for mana farming, will that resolve YES even though the CIA is not technically police and they never get an official arrest or trial?

What if they arm local mercenaries with guns and suggest a target, but never act directly on behalf of the USA?

predicts YES

@Mira On a related note, what if I start my own private state with private police and arrest someone for betting the wrong way (in the direction i don't like). Would this be enough for a YES resolution?

@Mira as I would never imply anything the CIA does could even potentially be unlawful I would have to say YES

@42irrationalist only if the state you create is recognized by at least 3 NATO member countries

sold Ṁ35 of NO

@CodeandSolder I'm pretty sure the only reason the CIA haven't shown up at my door to...have a nice chat :) is that I have no political power and no intention of seeking it. Otherwise I'd get a cou- I mean, a pet cougar. As a gift. From the very, very nice people at the CIA.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The most entertaining outcome is the most likely — all-in on YES!

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