Will anybody in the Trump family (except Donald) go to prison before 2030?
495
2029
51%
no
4%
Melania Trump
4%
Donald Trump Jr.
4%
Ivanka Trump
4%
Eric Trump
4%
Tiffany Trump
4%
Barron Trump
12%
Jared Kushner
4%
Lara Yunaska
4%
Michael Boulos
4%
Maryanne Trump Barry
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What about home detention in lieu of jail cell?

@GeoffWolfe prison sentence only

Does this count pre trial detention/a mugshot, or do they need to be convicted and spend some time in jail?

Other than that there are two main ways this could be resolved:

  1. When a member of the Trump family other than Trump himself goes to jail, it will resolve to that person.

  2. At close time (about 2030), it will be resolve equally between all family members who go to jail.

I think it will be #1, but it could be #2. There could also be complications here- for option 1, what happens if multiple people are imprisoned at the same (or more likely, very close) time(s)? For option 2, could it be resolved to a higher percentage if some go to jail longer?

Congratulations on making a market that I’m so curious about.

@Trifalcon needs to be proper prison and resolves to first person, if multiple people get sentenced so close together it's impossible to reliably determine which one entered a prison first it'll resolve to a split between the people.

It is in the description but probably too easy to miss because of all the links

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