Will the North Atlantic Counsel (NAC) decide before the end of 2026 that an attack on one of the NATO partners fulfilled the criteria to initiate Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? This would mean that all NATO partners will have the obligation to collectively defend the attacked NATO partner.

Market will resolve yes if the NAC publicly states that the NATO will instigate article 5, regardless of actual action undertaken by NATO partners.

Market will resolve no if no statement has been made before the end of 2026