Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain ceases to be a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by January 1, 2027. This includes, but is not limited to, a formal withdrawal by Spain in accordance with Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, or an explicit, official, and universally recognized declaration by NATO that Spain is no longer a member state.

The market will resolve to "No" if Spain remains a NATO member as of January 1, 2027.

Background

Spain became the 16th member of NATO on May 30, 1982. Since its accession, Spain has been a committed ally, participating in NATO's political and military structures. NATO is a collective defense alliance with 32 member states as of 2024.

Considerations

The North Atlantic Treaty, which governs NATO, includes a formal process for a member state to withdraw voluntarily, as outlined in Article 13. This article requires a member to give notice of denunciation to the Government of the United States, after which a one-year waiting period ensues before membership ceases. However, the treaty does not contain provisions for the expulsion or involuntary removal of a member state. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has stated there is no mechanism to expel members and he would not recommend its introduction. Therefore, any scenario of Spain being "removed" from NATO would most likely involve a decision by Spain itself to withdraw.