Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if NATO ceases to exist as an organization by December 31, 2027. Dissolution requires the formal termination of the North Atlantic Treaty or the effective end of NATO as a functioning alliance through the withdrawal of all or substantially all member states.

For resolution purposes, NATO dissolves if:

• The North Atlantic Treaty is formally terminated or denounced by member states

• NATO's institutional structures cease to operate and the alliance is formally disbanded

• All permanent member states have withdrawn (making collective defense impossible)

Partial withdrawals by individual members (including the United States) do not constitute dissolution. The market resolves NO if NATO continues to exist as a treaty organization with functioning institutions and at least a core group of member states committed to collective defense, regardless of changes in membership or operational scope.

Background

The United States has told European NATO allies it will hand over responsibility for conventional defense capabilities by 2027 and no longer act as the automatic security guarantor. Experts say the 2027 deadline will be impossible to meet, as Europe would need 300,000 additional troops, another 1,400 tanks and 2,000 infantry vehicles to replace US resources, costing at least €250bn in annual spending increases.

In December 2024, president-elect Donald Trump suggested he might support withdrawal from NATO in light of low defense spending by America's European allies, and this sentiment was later echoed more strongly by his senior advisor, Elon Musk, who expressed that the United States should leave both the United Nations and NATO in March 2025.

Considerations

Section 1250A of the National Defense Authorization Act requires that the President shall not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty except by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds of the Senators present concur, or pursuant to an Act of Congress. Under Article 13 of the Treaty, any country that wants to leave must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out. As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, although it has been considered by several countries.