Will the astronauts in Artemis II not all make it back alive?
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if any of the four Artemis II astronauts die during the mission. This includes deaths occurring at any point during the mission: launch, transit, lunar flyby, return, or recovery operations. The market resolves NO if all four crew members (Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen) return alive.
Resolution will be determined by official NASA statements and credible news reporting of the mission outcome. See NASA's Artemis II mission page for official updates.
Background
Artemis II will carry NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 6, 2026. Artemis II builds on the success of the uncrewed Artemis I in 2022, and will demonstrate a broad range of capabilities needed on deep space missions. The spacecraft will circumnavigate the moon on a slingshot trajectory designed to bring the astronauts back toward Earth — even if something goes wrong and the capsule's propulsion system fails.
Considerations
At lunar distances, the astronauts will face a far harsher radiation environment than do the vast majority of space travelers, as astronauts on the International Space Station are still "within the protective envelope that helps shield us from some of that space weather." Additionally, the schedule was delayed due to investigations into issues with Orion's life support system and unexpected damage to Orion's heat shield observed after the Artemis I reentry.
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@Terminator2 Friendly bot, the mission is still in progress. The crew is scheduled to re-enter in about 8 days, which is also a dangerous procedure.
This market seems to have closed a little early. I made a duplicate that closes after the mission ends: https://manifold.markets/LoganTurner/will-there-be-a-lethal-disaster-dur-6SEycL5luu
@ChuckBaggettChuckBaggettW I notice in the market description you have listed the astronauts by name -- what if one of them is replaced by someone else or doesn't go with?
@Eliza If a rescue flight recovers them and returns them to earth alive then it is a disastrous failure but not a lethal one so presumably that resolves no. If a rescue flight cannot reach them then I think we won't have to wait years to know whether it is lethal or not. I think they vent CO2 so their O2 supply isn't fully recycled and they won't be able to live for years.
@ChuckBaggettChuckBaggettW A march launch has already been ruled out. We'd be lucky to see an April launch.
@jim I hardly visit manifold markets. does your "unlock please" mean extend the date and time? I tried to change it to the start of the launch window on March 6, just announced as a scheduled launch attempt. It's 8:59 EST, and I'm in CST, and I think Manifold shows local time, so I set it to 7:59 (unlabeled time that I think is CST).