Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission? (duplicate)

Question

Will the astronauts in Artemis II not all make it back alive?

This is a duplicate market for another one created by Chuck Baggett.

His may not stay open during the mission, which I was depending on for my derivative market, so this is a backup for that.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (27 traders, as of Apr 5, 2026).