Starship launch cadence per Elon Musk
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927531406017601915
"Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks."
28 May 2025 shortly after flight 9 on 27th May 2025.
So how long for 3 launch attempts?
Time from test flight 9 time.
Launch attempts after flight 9 count.
Scrubbed or cancelled launch attempts do not count.
Static fires and wet dress rehearsals do not count as a launch attempt.
An explosion after fuel loading starts where all the notifications etc are published and it is being covered as a launch attempt does count.
If the time is really tight I will attempt to find time to the second or more accurately if that is easily available.
All markets are separate so can be resolved as each date passes. (Perhaps even a few days or a week before where situation is very clear.) Consequently options may not add up to 100 and you may be able to profit from selling or buying all options.
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Yes you can buy no across the board (I have already done some of that) but what should the distribution look like?
@ChristopherRandles It shouldn't be a distribution but a series like "11 weeks or less", "12 weeks or less", "13 weeks or less" etc. Like this for instance: https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-10-happen