Ship 37 probably near ready for static fire
Ship 38 probably ready for cryo pressure testing
Ship 39 (v3) stacking not started.
Ships 40-42 further from ready based on pics of nosecones.

While expectation seems to be that ship 39 won't launch until near end of year at earliest, with 3 v2 boosters might they build another v2 ship and what is minimum time for this?

Can / should I resolve some of the early dates based on around a month from cryotest to launch and maybe ~about? another month as a minimum estimate for stack and build work? Or is it too uncertain about how quickly they will be able to go once they can static fire on pad A?

I am tending to assume Musks 2 to 3 week for a ship is a total rate from 6 stations in Megabays so it could well be a 3-5 months for stack and build work. But I am not sure and maybe less than 3 months is possible.

@ChristopherRandles we have loans so I don't see much reason to resolve early

@Mqrius I think I promised early resolution where it is very clear with saying "(Perhaps even a few days or a week before where situation is very clear.)"

Now that we have
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=144398&RequestTimeout=1000
from 14th July saying they are not planning flight 11, let alone flight 12, until 1 September 2025 at the earliest I think it is very clear for the first 4 options to 2 September. So I think I should resolve those.

Any objections to this?

@ChristopherRandles I personally don't have any stake in the market so whatever works for y'all :)

Wrong market type. Only one of these can resolve as YES. Buying NO across the board is a guaranteed winner.

@MaxA deliberately chosen so can resolve each one without having to wait many weeks.

Yes you can buy no across the board (I have already done some of that) but what should the distribution look like?

@ChristopherRandles It shouldn't be a distribution but a series like "11 weeks or less", "12 weeks or less", "13 weeks or less" etc. Like this for instance: https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-10-happen

@MaxA That could well make sense, particularly if people prefer that. If others want to give opinion, let me know by commenting.

Too late to change this market now but may as well ask what people prefer.

Right now the percentages add up to 95%, so you'd actually want to buy Yes across the board. So generally this market works alright once it's corrected.

But personally I prefer voting on the "11 weeks or less" type, it's easier to think about and interact with.