How many weeks for 3 'not scrubbed' Starship launch attempts?
3
1.5kṀ10k
Nov 11
1%
11 or fewer weeks (until Tues 12 Aug 11:36pm UTC)
1%
12 (Tues 12 Aug 11:36pm to 19 Aug 2025 11:36pm UTC)
1%
13 (Tues 19 Aug 11:36pm to 26 Aug 2025 11:36pm UTC)
1%
14 (Tues 26 Aug 11:36pm to 2 Sept 2025 11:36pm UTC)
1%
15 (Tues 2 Sept 11:36pm to 9 Sept 2025 11:36pm UTC)
1.6%
16 (Tues 9 Sept 11:36pm to 16 Sept 2025 11:36pm UTC)
3%
17 (Tues 16 Sept 11:36pm to 23 Sept 2025 11:36pm UTC)
4%
18 (Tues 23 Sept 11:36pm to 30 Sept 2025 11:36pm UTC)
4%
19 (Tues 30 Sept 11:36pm to 7 Oct 2025 11:36pm UTC)
5%
20 (Tues 7 Oct 11:36pm to 14 Oct 2025 11:36pm UTC)
4%
21 (Tues 14 Oct 11:36pm to 21 Oct 2025 11:36pm UTC)
4%
22 (Tues 21 Oct 11:36pm to 28 Oct 2025 11:36pm UTC)
5%
23 (Tues 28 Oct 11:36pm to 4 Nov 2025 11:36pm UTC)
6%
24 (Tues 4 Nov 11:36pm to 11 Nov 2025 11:36pm UTC)
84%
25+ (Later than 11 Nov 2025 11:36pm UTC)

Starship launch cadence per Elon Musk

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1927531406017601915
"Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks."
28 May 2025 shortly after flight 9 on 27th May 2025.

So how long for 3 launch attempts?
Time from test flight 9 time.
Launch attempts after flight 9 count.

Scrubbed or cancelled launch attempts do not count.
Static fires and wet dress rehearsals do not count as a launch attempt.

An explosion after fuel loading starts where all the notifications etc are published and it is being covered as a launch attempt does count.

If the time is really tight I will attempt to find time to the second or more accurately if that is easily available.

All markets are separate so can be resolved as each date passes. (Perhaps even a few days or a week before where situation is very clear.) Consequently options may not add up to 100 and you may be able to profit from selling or buying all options.

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