Will an opensource LLM on huggingface beat an average human at the most common LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?
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Open source models are measured against ARC, HellaSwag, MMLU, and TruthfulQA on https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard . I've added the following plot to this huggingface space so we can see the progress of open source models over time:

I'm wondering when the average human baseline will be passed. A linear trend indicates July 2024 with a 0.89 pearson coef:

But this trend might not be linear. This questions will resolve Yes if the average human baseline on Open LLM Leaderboard on huggingface is surpassed before July 1, 2024.

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"an average human" in the title is misleading given that "average human baseline" consists of MMLU human baseline at ~90% which is expert performance instead of average human performance.

from: D. Hendrycks, C. Burns, S. Basart, A. Zou, M. Mazeika, D. Song, and J. Steinhardt. Measuring massive multitask language understanding. arXiv preprint arXiv:2009.03300, 2020
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03300.pdf

predicts YES

@Metastable yeah it's so hard to measure these things. Don't worry I have an idea to fix this.

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