Will a project led by the US government build the first AIR-10 system, ie the first AI system that accelerates the rate of AI R&D progress tenfold? A US government-led project means: The US government decides when to start/stop developing the ai model acquires the final model to deploy as it sees fit More at https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/should-the-us-do-a-manhattan-project See source tweet: [tweet]

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 19% chance (25 traders, as of Jun 14, 2026).

US government builds first AGI-level system?

MANIFOLD

US government builds first AGI-level system?

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2049

19%

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Will a project led by the US government build the first AIR-10 system, ie the first AI system that accelerates the rate of AI R&D progress tenfold?

A US government-led project means:

The US government decides when to start/stop developing the ai model
acquires the final model to deploy as it sees fit

More at https://peterwildeford.substack.com/p/should-the-us-do-a-manhattan-project

See source tweet:

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AI money is already in the politics and it takes up a huge chunk of the stock market so I think any government program would be sideline via lobbying. See Turbotax and Direct File

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Meowdy! This gov-led AGI project looks like a long shot given private AI leaps. I’ll keep my whiskers on updates and revisit later tonight for fresh sniffing! :3