Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?
Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?
5
100Ṁ952040
21%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve positively if the AI system that resolves the question Date first AGI is publicly known. was developed by a research group working for an international project.
“International project” means a formally organized, multinational endeavor involving two or more countries (via public funding, formal agreements, or institutional structures spanning multiple nations), similar in spirit to collaborations like the Human Genome Project or CERN. Indicators of “international project” status include: official involvement of multiple governments or governmental agencies, shared funding from multiple countries, or internationally chartered organizations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Which lab will claim that they have developed AGI first?
Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?
22% chance
Which company will create AGI first?
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?
26% chance
Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Will a Manhattan/ Apollo type project towards AGI/ ASI be launched? (or has been)
51% chance
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?