Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if QuantumScape and PowerCo jointly confirm in an official press release, earnings report, or public statement that they have achieved initial sample production of QS-enabled Unified Cell (also referred to as "blue box" unified cell) by December 31, 2025. The confirmation must explicitly state that QuantumScape's ceramic separator technology has been incorporated into PowerCo's unified cell format and that at least one sample has been produced, whether for testing or commercial purposes.

Resolution sources: Official press releases from QuantumScape (https://ir.quantumscape.com/resources/press-releases/) or Volkswagen Group/PowerCo (https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/press-releases/), quarterly earnings reports, or SEC filings.

The market resolves NO if no such confirmation is made by year-end 2025.

Background

PowerCo and QuantumScape entered a licensing agreement in 2024 for the use of QuantumScape's IP in cell production at PowerCo facilities. QuantumScape produced the first B-samples of the QSE-5 in October 2024. In September 2025, executives from QuantumScape, Volkswagen Group, and PowerCo unveiled an all-electric Ducati motorcycle powered by QSE-5 solid-state cells, with the energy-dense cells assembled using QuantumScape's proprietary Cobra production process. Volkswagen's unified cell concept developed by PowerCo is suitable for the use of solid-state cell technology.

Considerations

A previous market update noted that 980 cells in a module configuration mentioned in a PowerCo unified cell presentation was specific to Ducati's battery pack and did not qualify as a "blue box" unified cell for resolution purposes. The distinction between prototype cells in non-automotive applications (like the Ducati motorcycle) and cells specifically integrated into PowerCo's standardized unified cell format is critical for resolution.