This market will resolve according to a poll I will hold in January 2027. I will ask whether people feel like they've encountered more, the same amount of, or less AI slop in December 2025 than in December 2026. The votes for "more" will count for a YES resolution and the votes for "less" will count towards a NO resolution. A tie will resolve as "NO".

I will neither bet in this market nor will I participate in the poll.

Background:

While it used to take a lot of effort to produce plausibly looking text, code, math, images, and video, it's trivial nowadays. Any moron can do it, and what morons can do, morons will do. As technology progresses in availability, cost, and speed, we might expect to see even more of it in the future. More unsolicited mindless messages written entirely by AIs and passed as human output, more bullshit pull requests, more crappy proofs, more of the same boring AI-generated images, and more annoying AI videos.

On the other hand, humanity might surprise by starting to treat all of this as very bad etiquette, requiring, e.g., AI content to be marked explicitly as AI content so everybody can simply ignore it. Or the technology advances to such a degree that the AI slop becomes virtually indistinguishable from human output, thereby rendering it effectively invisible. In both cases, people might not feel they encounter AI slop as much as they used to.