By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.

Qualifying events:

• Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.

• Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.

• If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.

• Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question

Government-controlled AI runs will be compared to the most FLOP-intensive AI run by a US-registered company i.e. we are excluding non-US runs.

Given that there are many degrees of nationalization, please let me know if you have any better ideas on how to operationalize this. I'll be open to ideas until the end of June 2024 after which I'll try to keep edits minimal.

(In case this happened long ago incidentally at some national lab, we'll only count post-2023 runs.)