Will America remain a two-party system until 2050? | Manifold

Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?

15

1kṀ375

2050

68%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves yes if Democrats or Republicans win every state in the 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044 and 2048 Presidential elections. This does not take Congressional races into account.

The status of a candidate as a Democrat or Republican will be determined by the party.

Faithless electors changing the outcome of a state to independent will only be included if they change the overall outcome of the presidential election.

Republican Party

2024 US Presidential Election

Democratic Party

Electoral College

election reform

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If it becomes a one party system with one of the two parties becoming effectively uncontested, the market still resolves yes?

It's more likely than a three party system IMO.

@ProjectVictory I’d take that bet

If it is still a duopoly but with different parties - like in the mid-19th century, with the Whigs and Democrats - doesn't it count?

@BrunoParga Okay so if in any election 3 different parties win then of course it resolves no. In the exceedingly unlikely case in which only 2 parties win states, but one of them is not the republican party or the democrat party, I will still resolve no as it means more then 2 different parties can win states

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