Will America remain a two-party system until 2032?
11
95
Ṁ305Ṁ1k
2033
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Democrats or Republicans win every state in the 2024, 2028, and 2032 Presidential elections.
Faithless electors will only be included if they change the outcome of the presidential election, even if this is eventually overturned.
For example, if a Democrat wins in 2024 and the electors from Democrat-won Vermont choose an independent candidate, the market will only resolve no if this changes the outcome of the general election.
The status of a candidate as a Democrat or Republican will be determined by the party, not by the candidate or media.
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