Will America remain a two-party system until February 2040?
17
1kṀ14812040
72%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Democrats or Republicans win every state in the 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, and 2040 Presidential elections. This does not take Congressional races into account.
Faithless electors will only be included if they change the outcome of the presidential election.
The status of a candidate as a Democrat or Republican will be determined by the party, not by the candidate or media.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will America remain a two-party system until 2032?
90% chance
Will America remain a two-party system until 2050?
68% chance
Will the Democratic and Republican parties still be the two main parties by 2032?
88% chance
At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]
32% chance
Will both the Democratic and Republican party in the USA keep operating under the same names until the end of 2030?
92% chance
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2040?
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2032?
Will there be a major change to the US political system by the end of 2035?
72% chance
Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?
11% chance
In 2025, will any member of U.S. Congress change their party affiliation?
65% chance